成人大片

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This is the second in a two-part series on the major parties鈥� Treasury spokespeople. You can read Michelle Grattan鈥檚 profile of Josh Frydenberg .

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Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers decided it would be premature to stand for the Labor leadership after Bill Shorten鈥檚 2019 election defeat. However, he is likely to be a serious candidate if Anthony Albanese loses the 2022 election. At the least, Chalmers has positioned himself to be a very capable senior minister in an Albanese government.

So who is Jim Chalmers?

He grew up in southern Brisbane and Logan City, in his current electorate of Rankin. He

part of all I have met there: the local parents and pensioners, cleaners and kitchen hands, businesses and battlers, tradies and truckies.

His mother Carol was a nurse and his father Graham a courier. A favourite school teacher Chalmers as 鈥渁lways going to go into politics.鈥�

颁丑补濒尘别谤蝉鈥� subsequent education suggests he was indeed aiming for a political career. He gained a Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Communication from Griffith University, and a PhD in political science from the Australian National University.

颁丑补濒尘别谤蝉鈥� on Paul Keating studied the sources and constraints of prime ministerial power. He argued Keating鈥檚 flaws included failing to build a good relationship with the media, and not engaging sufficiently with the concerns and aspirations of voters.

Chalmers had already begun working for the ALP before he completed his PhD. He went on to hold a variety of state and federal government advisory roles, including being former Labor Treasurer Wayne Swan鈥檚 chief of staff.

颁丑补濒尘别谤蝉鈥� experiences in the Rudd and Gillard governments led to a , Glory Daze, which defended Labor鈥檚 economic management of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) against critics, particularly the Murdoch press. After the Rudd government鈥檚 defeat, Chalmers co-authored a with Mike Quigley on the economic and social policy implications of technological disruption, Changing Jobs: The Fair Go in the New Machine Age.

He is married to Laura Anderson, and they have three children.

What does Chalmers believe in?

Chalmers is therefore a somewhat unusual politician, more reflective and intellectual than most. However, he has also established himself as a very capable media performer with excellent communication skills. He is more personable, engaging and better at cutting through than his former boss, Wayne Swan.

But what does he stand for? Chalmers is a member of Labor鈥檚 right faction. In Glory Daze, he defined Labor as standing for intergenerational mobility, aspiration and the Fair Go, while emphasising the importance of sound economic management.

In many respects, those are still 颁丑补濒尘别谤蝉鈥� values. However, there is one key difference. Acceptance of large deficits as a legitimate tool of economic management has grown since COVID-related stimulus spending. Labor increased government debt to fund stimulus packages during the GFC by significantly than the Coalition has during COVID.

Nonetheless, and still emphasised the importance of getting back in the black, blaming massively falling government revenues for their failure to do so.

Chalmers now argues it is the quality not quantity of the government spend that is most important. Labor鈥檚 alternative budget should 鈥渘ot on whether it鈥檚 a little bit bigger or a little bit smaller than our opponents鈥� but on 鈥渧alue for money鈥�. He criticises the Morrison government for a history of incompetent expenditure, it wasted billions on French submarines, consultants, unnecessary job keeper payments and electoral pork-barrelling.

He the budget deficit is best addressed by ending the Coalition鈥檚 wasteful spending and rorts, while using government expenditure to increase productivity and grow the economy. Investing in education and training, innovation and developing local business supply chains are central to this agenda. Meanwhile increased funding for childcare and health would have both social and economic benefits.

Chalmers the need for a future Labor government to work with business. He shares Anthony Albanese鈥檚 view that Bill Shorten鈥檚 targeting of the 鈥渂ig end of town鈥� in the last election was a .

Similarly, in line with his previous arguments, Chalmers prioritises encouraging 鈥溾��. Shorten鈥檚 focus on combating increasing class inequality has been replaced by a focus on addressing the cost of living pressures suffered by who have experienced increasing prices and declining real wages.

Here, as , Chalmers often draws on pre-Shorten Labor strategies. The term 鈥渨orking families鈥� was by Kevin Rudd in the 2007 election campaign. It can evoke class but is less alienating to business and conservative voters than emphasising economic inequality.

Clearly Chalmers sees the focus on cost of living pressures and aspiration as connecting with voters鈥� concerns in a way that he has long argued Labor needs to do.

Meanwhile, the emphasis on working with business is intended to shore up Labor鈥檚 reputation as good economic managers. It reflects a , strongly by Anthony Albanese, that business and labour have common interests in a healthy, productive economy that generates employment.

Chalmers has repeatedly that Labor is committed to securing 鈥渁n economy and a society stronger after COVID than before.鈥� He is attempting to sell a of hope for the 2022 election campaign, while avoiding controversial policies that could unleash Coalition scare campaigns.

However, there are after-effects of the pandemic that may pose major challenges for Labor鈥檚 agenda, especially when combined with the economic fallout of international security issues.

Challenges ahead

There are for Labor to tackle wage stagnation and low-paid, precarious work. Nonetheless, Chalmers skates over a potential contradiction in Labor鈥檚 plans to both work closely with business and increase real wages.

Labor argues that it will pursue a Bob Hawke-style consensus with business. However, it conveniently overlooks that Hawke鈥檚 consensus was reinforced by an that substituted better government services and benefits for wage rises, eventually leading to real wage cuts.

Hawke later that a rationale for the Accord was that 鈥渆mployers didn鈥檛 have to pay as much鈥�. Furthermore, even former Labor prime ministers and attempted to restrain real wage increases in times of inflation.

An Albanese Labor government would fund wage rises in aged care. However, many rises would cost the private sector, including in other sectors of where Chalmers supports substantial real wage increases.

Some far-sighted business people, in highly profitable industries, might accept that wage stagnation has damaged the economy by reducing consumption levels. Nonetheless, pandemic losses, combined with rising supply costs exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, have contributed to many sections of business being even more hesitant to raise their own workers鈥� wages now than would usually be the case.

Multiple business leaders and organisations have recently opposed wage rises, or argued for a substantial delay. These range from to the and .

Meanwhile, the is mounting a campaign against Labor鈥檚 proposed abolition of the Australian Building and Construction Commission, arguing that it would unleash rogue building unions and 鈥渞isk the economic recovery鈥�.

Widespread can indeed give rise to perceptions Labor can鈥檛 manage the economy, with particular implications for voters employed in the private sector. Furthermore, Chalmers the opportunities technology provides, including for working from home.

However, increased working from home during the pandemic has also demonstrated that many tasks can be done remotely, thereby exacerbating existing trends towards to lower wage countries.

Similarly, Labor鈥檚 and 颁丑补濒尘别谤蝉鈥� much vaunted emphasis on education and training, including free TAFE, may no longer be the simple panacea it once was for improving standards of living. As , they replace not just unskilled jobs but many skilled ones as well.

In short, there can be downsides to the benefits technology can bring that Chalmers has arguably underestimated both in and in his co-authored book on jobs in the Machine Age.

There are also other potential problems with Labor鈥檚 heavy reliance on education and training. Albanese鈥檚 that 鈥淟abor鈥檚 historic task is to move more people into the middle-class鈥� gels with 颁丑补濒尘别谤蝉鈥� long-term focus on intergenerational mobility and aspiration.

While it is excellent to provide greater access to skills, training and equal opportunities, what about the traditional working class?

COVID provides lessons here too. There is some truth in the aphorism that during the pandemic the educated middle class often stayed safely working from home while members of the working class brought them things and kept essential services running.

Yet Labor rhetoric about aspiration all too often suggests a major solution to inequality lies in people leaving the working class. Consequently, what attracts 鈥渁spirationals鈥�, risks leaving some traditional supporters feeling alienated and unappreciated.

Labor will also face a host of other economic and social challenges. increasing taxes other than on multinationals will still leave major government revenue losses resulting from and tax cuts. Increasing revenues from has temporarily helped the budget bottom line.

However, security concerns and declining trust have resulted in a of the Australian and Chinese economies. This is likely to worsen as China searches for other markets, with negative implications for the Australian economy.

Admittedly, Chalmers would find it difficult to acknowledge such complex challenges during a small-target election campaign that focuses on promising a positive future. And he may be willing to address at least some future challenges in interesting ways if Labor wins office.

His book Changing Jobs includes a long list of new policy proposals for dealing with the Machine Age. For example, Chalmers and Quigley argue a robot tax is worthy of careful consideration. An opinion piece co-authored with Andrew Charlton (an architect of Kevin Rudd鈥檚 stimulus policies since parachuted in as Labor candidate for Paramatta) for the possibility of 鈥渓inking the tax and transfer system to ensure a minimum basic income for those who need it.鈥�

A robot tax would encounter major business opposition and is ruled out in the near term by 颁丑补濒尘别谤蝉鈥� rejection of new taxes. But Chalmers recently that a minimum basic income for those who need it would be among 鈥渢he sorts of issues that a Labor government would look at鈥� given medium and longer term agendas.

In short, Chalmers may turn out to be a far more innovative politician than his current cautious election rhetoric suggests. Meanwhile, he continues to that Labor governments have historically been better economic managers than the Coalition.

Nonetheless, whoever wins government will face major economic and social challenges.