Dr Damien Fordham

Dr Damien Fordham
 Position Associate Prof/Reader
 Org Unit Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
 Email damien.fordham@adelaide.edu.au
 Telephone +61 8 8313 6711
 Mobile +61 4 7730 3470
 Location Floor/Room G ,  Benham ,   North Terrace

  • Biography/ Background

    I am an Associate Professor in Global Change Ecology working at the 成人大片's Environment Institute and Department for Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. I lead the Biodiversity and Climate theme at the Environment Institute and I am an Associate Dean International in the Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology Faculty.  

    My research interests are diverse, and include ecological modelling, global change biology, biogeography, climate science, quantitative ecology and conservation biology.

    As trans-disciplinary scientist, my research brings a range of critical skills to the topic of global environmental change on natural systems: an area characterised by complexity and some irreducible uncertainty. My research blends theoretical and empirical approaches. It uses the latest developments in macroecology, climatology, paleoecology and genomics to improve the way in which ecological-model forecasts are generated, interpreted, and used to protect natural systems for long-term resource sustainability.

    By unveiling the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that have shaped past and current-day patterns of biodiversity, my research is providing a realworld foundation for better anticipating what the future may bring under accelerated rates of climate change.

     

    More information on my research interests can be found at

  • Teaching Interests

    POSTGRADUATE SUPERVISION

    Opportunities are available for Ph.D., Masters and Honours students for specific on-going research projects with existing funding (see below). General inquiries for student projects on topics such as managing global change impacts on biodiversity, determining the mechanisms that govern the structure and dynamics of patterns of diversity, improving theory underpinning extinction dynamics are also welcome.

     

    Joint award PhD stipends: Macroecology and bioidversity conservation

    The succesful candidates will be engaged in a jointly awarded phD program recently established between the 成人大片 and teh University of Copenhagen. The successful candidates will work closely with a diverse and highly skilled group of researchers

    Position 1: Unravelling past mammal declines to improve conservation actions

    Position 2: Establishing ecological processes of perisistence in Andean birds

     

    Other potential postgraduate projects 

    There are opportunties for PhD and Masters level projects for  all ongoing reserach projects. Please see below Research Interests. 

    PHD STUDENTS

    • Mr Stuart O'Neil (PhD commenced 2022)  Supervisors Fordham D.A., Brown S. Disentangling the range dynamics of Australian ecosystem engineers under environmental change.
    • Mr Anthony Markey (PhD commeneced 2022) Supervisors Mellin C., Fordham D.A., Stuart-Smith R. Trait based responses of coral reef fish communities to global warming.
    • Mr Nick Freymueller (PhD commeneced 2021) Supervisors Fordham D.A., Lorenzen E., Rahbek C. Resilience of arctic marine mammals to future climate change using fossil archives
    • Ms Julia Pilowsky (PhD commenced 2019) Supervisors Fordham D.A., Rahbek C. Revealing ecological  processes of range dynamics through space and time.
    HONOURS STUDENTS

    Chih-Yun (Kantine) Lui Conserving rock-hole bioidversity under climate change using microcosms and models

     

    GRADUATED STUDENTS

    PhD

    • Dr Elisabetta Canteri (PhD) Supervisors Fordham D.A., Nogues-Bravo D. Unlocking biodiversity dynamics to prevent extinctions from global change
    • Dr Hadayet Ullah (PhD) Supervisors Nagelkerken I, Fordham D.A. Using mesocosms to predict how cliamet change will impact marin ecosystems.
    • Dr Jessica  Wadley (PhD) Supervisors: Austin J. & Fordham D.A. Phylogeography and conservation genetics of Australian marsupials.
    • Dr Bert Harris (PhD) Supervisors: Brook B.W., Sodhi, N.S. & Fordham, D.A. Synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss on the range and abundance of birds in Southern Australia and Southeast Asia.
    • Dr Deb Bower (PhD) Supervisors: Georges, A., Hutchinson, M. & Fordham, D.A. Conservation biology and management of the broad-shelled turtle Chelodina expansa
    Masters
    • Dave Dean (Masters) Supervisors Bradhsaw, C.J.A. & Fordham D.A Wetland Species-Area Relationship Projections Under Climate Change
    Honours
    • Mr Stuart O'Neil (First Class Honours - Michael Smith Memorial Prize) Unravelling the effect of abrupt climate change on an apex predator and its primary food resource
    • Ms Yasmin Gee (First Class Honours) Modelling mammal reintroductions under climate chaneg using multi-temporal data
    • Ms Madeline Bakker (First Class Honours)  Identifying hotspots of species loss and ecological correlates of range contractions for Australian mammals using natural collections
    • Ms Stephany Strange (First Class Honours) Supervisors Fordham D.A. Reintroduction strategies for mitigating the effects of global warming on Komodo dragons

     

    UNDERGRADUATE TEACHING

    ENV BIOL 2503 - Zoology II (/course-outlines/104303/1/sem-1/)

    ENV BIOL 3121 - Concepts in Ecology III (/course-outlines/103104/1/sem-1/)

    ENV BIOL 1002 - Ecological Issues I (/course-outlines/008954/1/sem-2/)

    ENV BIOL 3580 -  Conservation Biology III  (/course-outlines/109065/1/sem-2/2020/)

  • Research Interests

     

    Global extinction rates have soared over the past century, due predominantly to the resource demands of a burgeoning human population. Shifting land-use and wildlife exploitation, and elevated rates of competition and predation by invasive organisms, have reduced the range and abundance of many species, directly causing severe biodiversity loss at local scales, and indirectly limiting the scope for sufficient ecological and evolutionary adaptation to future environmental change. Managing these human-mediated impacts continues to be a clear focus for global change ecologists and conservation biologists, but with an increasing acknowledgement that extinction drivers are usually interacting and self-reinforcing. Understanding how biodiversity will respond to future human impacts requires innovative new approaches which explicitly couple ecological and climatic-geophysical processes. A central theme of my research is delivering the predictive tools required to anticipate ecological responses to climate change in the context of other human-driven threatening processes.

     

    Present projects include:

    • Determining how past responses of biodiversity to climate change can directly inform and guide broad-scale conservation policies aimed at reducing risks to natural systems.

    • Integrating experimental approaches, paleorecords and process-based models to better anticipate and manage species- to ecosystem-level responses to climate change

    • Establishing the mechanisms and processes that govern the structure and dynamics of diversity.

    • Developing biogeographic guidelines that can prevent future extinctions

    • Determining whether there are general patterns in the spatial dynamics of range collapses.

     

     

  • Research Funding
    Ongoing grants:
    • 2021-2024 Lorenzen E, Fordham DA + 2 Authors Unravelling the resilience of Arctic marine mammals to future climate change using paleo-archives Villum Foundation $820 000 AUD
    • 2018 - 2020 Fordham DA, Austin J, Nogues-Bravo D, Rahbek, C, Lomolino M  Reconstructing mechanisms of range contraction to avert species extinctions. ARC DP $496 000 AUD
    Past Grants:
    • 2014-2018 Fordham. Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Australian Research Council  Future Fellowship ($772 000 AUD)
    • 2018 Fordham DA Mitigating future biodiversity loss through better use of long term ecological proxies. Environment Institute, University of Adelaide 2018 $25,620 AUD
    • 2012-2016 Fordham, Cassey, Brook, Mutze. An integrated tool for informing pest management: modelling range shifts for an invasive vertebrate in response to climate change. Australian Research Council Linkage Project ($750 000 AUD)
    • Gillanders BM, Donnellan SC, Fordham DA, Prowse T, Rowling K, Steer M. Giant Australian cuttlefish in South Australian waters. Fisheries Research and Development Corporation $367,000 (2014-2015)
    • Lacy R, Akçakaya HR, Brook B, Grajal A, Miller P, Fordham DA + 16 other authors. Using metamodels to enable transdisciplinary research for the study of dynamic biological systems under global change NSF RCN $500 000 USD (2012 – 2016).
    • Fisher D, Ritchie E, Webb J, Ward S, Oakwood M, Radford I, Tuft K, Burnett S, Heiniger J, Annette C, Williams D, Fordham D., Pollock K, Barker R, Morris K Understanding current mechanisms of extinction using population models for the northern quoll, Dasyurus hallucatus across tropical Australia $30 000 AUD (2013 – 2014).
    • 2010-2013 Fordham and Brook. Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Australian Research Council Discovery Project ($390 000 AUD)
    • 2009-2012 Brook, Fordham, Araújo, and Foulkes. Planning for a transformed future: Modelling synergistic climate change and land use impacts on biodiversity. Australian Research Council Linkage Project ($636 000 AUD)
    • 2009-2011 Corey and Fordham. Conserving turtles in Arnhem Land by managing an exotic species. Australian Government Caring for our Country ($134 637 Aus)
    Present Postdoc and Research Associate
    •  Dr Stuart Brown: Past and future affects of climate on marine arctic mammals
    •  Dr Sean Tommlinson: Range and extinction dynamics of moa 
    Past Postdocs
    •   Dr Sean Haythorne: Software development
    •   Dr Frederik Saltre: Determining the effect of past climate change on biodiversity  
    •   Dr Konstans Wells: Building robust epidemiological models that account for climate change
    •   Dr Alice Jones:Meta-modelling of ecological, evolutionary and climatic systems dynamics
    •   Dr Miguel Lurgi: Modelling the effects of invasive species on ecological communities
    •   Dr Stephen Gregory: Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change
    •   Dr Steve Delean: Modelling synergistic climate change and land use impacts on biodiversity
    •   Dr Michael Watts: Developing novel model architectures to better predict biodiversity responses to climate and land-use change.
    •   Dr Donna Harris: Population dynamics and persistence of macropods in rapidly changing landscape

     

  • Publications

    2022

    • Fordham, D. A., Brown, S. C., Akçakaya, H. R., Brook, B. W., Haythorne, S., Manica, A., . . . Nogues-Bravo, D. (2022). Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation. Ecology Letters, 25(1), 125-137. doi:

    • Pilowsky, J. A., Colwell, R. K., Rahbek, C., & Fordham, D. A. (2022). Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity. Science Advances. doi:10.1126/sciadv.abj2271

    2021

    • Fordham, D. A., Haythorne, S., Brown, S. C., Buettel, J. C., & Brook, B. W. (2021). poems: R package for simulating species' range dynamics using pattern-oriented validation. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 12(12), 2364-2371. doi:

    • Lomolino, M. V, Tomlinson, S., Wood, J., Wilmshurst, J., & Fordham, D. A. (2021). Geographic and ecological segregation in an extinct guild of flightless birds: New Zealand’s moa. Frontiers of Biogeography, 13(4).

    • Ullah, H., Fordham, D. A., & Nagelkerken, I. (2021). Climate change negates positive CO2 effects on marine species biomass and productivity by altering the strength and direction of trophic interactions. Science of The Total Environment, 801, 149624. doi:

    • Canteri, E., Fordham, D. A., Li, S., Hosner, P. A., Rahbek, C., & Nogués-Bravo, D. (2021). IUCN Red List protects avian genetic diversity. Ecography, 44(12), 1808-1811. doi:

    2020

    • Fordham, D. A., Jackson, S. T., Brown, S. C., Huntley, B., Brook, B. W., Dahl-Jensen, D., . . . Nogues-Bravo, D. (2020). Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change. Science, 369(6507), eabc5654. doi:10.1126/science.abc5654

    • Brown, S. C., Wigley, T. M. L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., & Fordham, D. A. (2020). StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales. Scientific Data, 7(1), 335. doi:10.1038/s41597-020-00663-3

    • Brown, S. C., Wells, K., Roy-Dufresne, E., Campbell, S., Cooke, B., Cox, T., & Fordham, D. A. (2020). Models of spatiotemporal variation in rabbit abundance reveal management hotspots for an invasive species. Ecological Applications, 30( 4):e02084. 

    • Jones, A. R., Jessop, T. S., Ariefiandy, A., Brook, B. W., Brown, S. C., Ciofi, C., . . . Fordham, D. A. (2020). Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World’s largest lizard from global warming. Ecology and Evolutio n10 (19), 10492-1050. doi:10.1002/ece3.6705

    • Phelps, L. N., Broennimann, O., Manning, K., Timpson, A., Jousse, H., Mariethoz, G., . . . Guisan, A. (2020). Reconstructing the climatic niche breadth of land use for animal production during the African Holocene. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 29(1), 127-147. doi:10.1111/geb.13015

    • Theodoridis, S., Fordham, D. A., Brown, S. C., Li, S., Rahbek, C., & Nogues-Bravo, D. (2020). Evolutionary history and past climate change shape the distribution of genetic diversity in terrestrial mammals. Nature Communications, 11(1), 2557. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16449-5

    • Brown, S. C., Wigley, T. M. L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Rahbek, C., & Fordham, D. A. (2020). Persistent Quaternary climate refugia are hospices for biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Nature Climate Change, 10(3), 244-248. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0682-7

    2019

    • Fordham D.A., Brown S.C., Wigley T.M.L., Rahbek C. (2019) Cradles of diversity: unlikely relics of regional climate stability. Current Biology, Current Biology, 29(10), R356-R357. doi:
    • Murphy, B. P., Woolley, L.-A., Geyle, H. M., Legge, S. M., Palmer, R., Dickman, C. R., . . . Woinarski, J. C. Z. (2019). Introduced cats (Felis catus) eating a continental fauna: The number of mammals killed in Australia. Biological Conservation, 237, 28-40. doi:
    • Roy-Dufresne, E., Saltré, F., Cooke, B. D., Mellin, C., Mutze, G., Cox, T., & Fordham, D. A. (2019). Modeling the distribution of a wide-ranging invasive species using the sampling efforts of expert and citizen scientists. Ecology and Evolution, 9(19), 11053-11063. doi:10.1002/ece3.5609
    • Roy-Dufresne E., Lurgi Rivera M, Brown S., +33 authors and Fordham DA (2019) The Australian National Rabbit Database: 50 years of population monitoring of the invasive European Rabbit. Ecology,  
    • Mellin C. , Matthews S. , Anthony K.R., Brown S.C., Caley M.J., Johns K. , Osborne K. , Puotinen M. , Thompson A. , Wolff N.H., Fordham D.A. and MacNeil M.A. (2019) Spatial resilience of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative disturbance impacts. Glob Change Biol. Accepted Manuscript. doi:10.1111/gcb.14625
    2018
    • Nogués-Bravo, D., Rodríguez-Sánchez, F., Orsini, L., de Boer, E., Jansson, R., Morlon, H., Fordham, D.A., Jackson, S., 2018. Cracking the code of biodiversity responses to past climate change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005).
    • Lurgi, M., Ritchie, E.G., Fordham, D.A., 2018. Eradicating abundant invasive prey could cause unexpected and varied biodiversity outcomes: The importance of multispecies interactions. Journal of Applied Ecology 55(5) 2396-2407.
    • Martínez, B., Radford, B., Thomsen, M.S., Connell, S.D., Carreño, F., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Fordham, D.A., Russell, B.D., Gurgel, C.F.D., Wernberg, T., 2018. Distribution models predict large contractions of habitat-forming seaweeds in response to ocean warming. Diversity and Distributions 24(10) 1350-1366.
    • Jessop, T.S., Ariefiandy, A., Purwandana, D., Ciofi, C., Imansyah, J., Benu, Y.J., Fordham, D.A., Forsyth, D.M., Mulder, R.A., Phillips, B.L., 2018. Exploring mechanisms and origins of reduced dispersal in island Komodo dragons. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 285(1891).
    • Fordham, D.A., Nogues-Bravo, D., 2018. Open-access data is uncovering past responses of biodiversity to global environmental change. PAGES https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.22426.22492.22477.
    • Wells K., Fordham D.A., Brook B.W., Cassey P., Cox T., O’Hara R.B., Schwensow N. 2018 Disentangling synergistic disease dynamics: implications for the viral biocontrol of rabbits. Journal of Animal Ecology doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12871
    • Ullah H., Nagelkerken, I., Goldenberg, S.U., Fordham D.A., 2018. Climate change could drive marine food web collapse through altered trophic flows and cyanobacterial proliferation. PLoS Biology 16(1) e2003446. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2003446
    • Fordham D.A. et al. (2018) Why decadal to century timescale paleoclimate data is needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change Global Change Biology DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13932
    • Fordham D.A. et al. (2018) How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models. Global Change Biology DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13935

    2017

    • Caddy-Retalic, S., Andersen, A.N., Aspinwall, M.J., Breed, M.F., Byrne, M., Christmas, M.J., Dong, N., Evans, B.J., Fordham, D.A. + 11 co-authors (2017) Bioclimatic transect networks: Powerful observatories of ecological change. Ecology and Evolution 7(13) 4607-4619.
    • Deane D.C., Fordham D.A., Stevens A.K., Bradshaw C.J.A. (2017) Niche constraints and dispersal-limited competition together assemble wetland plant communities. Journal of Vegetation Science. doi: 10.1111/jvs.12546
    • Fordham D. A., Saltré F., Haythorne S., Wigley T. M. L., Otto-Bliesner B. L., Chan K. C. and Brook, B. W. (2017), PaleoView: A tool for generating continuous climate projections spanning the last 21,000 years at regional and global scales. Ecography. doi:10.1111/ecog.03031
    • Deane D.C., Fordham D.A., H, F., Bradshaw C.J.A. (2017) Future extinction risk of wetland plants is higher from individual patch loss than total area reduction. Biological Conservation 209 27-33

    2016

    • Fordham DA, Akcakaya HR, Alroy J, Saltré F, Wigley TM, Brook BW Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies. Nature Climate Change (accepted)
    • Fordham DA, Brook BW, Hoskin CJ, Pressey RL, VanDerWal J, Williams SE, Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics. Biology Letters (accepted)
    • Soubrier J, Graham G, Chen K, Richards SM, Llamas B, Mitchell KR, Ho SYW, Kosintsev P, Lee MSY, Baryshnikov G, Bollongino R, Bover P, Burger J, Chivall D, Crégut-Bonnoure E, Decker JE, Doronichev VB, Douka K, Fordham DA et al. Early cave art and ancient DNA record the origin of European bison. Nature Communications (accepted)
    • Lurgi M, Wells K, Kennedy M, Campbell S, Fordham DA, A landscape approach to invasive species management. PloS one. 11 (7), e0160417
    • Wadley JJ, Fordham DA, Thomson VA, Ritchie EG, and Austin JJ. Phylogeography of the antilopine wallaroo (Macropus antilopinus) across tropical northern Australia. Ecology and Evolution (accepted)
    • Wallach AD, Dekker AH, Lurgi M, Montoya JM, Fordham DA, Ritchie EG, Trophic cascades in 3D: Network analysis reveals how apex predators structure ecosystems. Methods in Ecology and Evolution (accepted)
    • Fordham DA, Haythorne S,Brook BW Sensitivity Analysis of Range Dynamics Models (SARDM): quantifying the influence of parameter uncertainty on forecasts of extinction risk from global change. Environmental Modelling and Software, 83, 193-197
    • Deane DC, Fordham DA, He F, Bradshaw CJA 2016 Diversity patterns of seasonal wetland plant communities mainly driven by rare terrestrial species. Biodivers Conserv, 1-17. (doi:10.1007/s10531-016-1139-1)
    • Wells K, Cassey P, Sinclair RG, Mutze GJ, Peacock DE, Lacy RC, Cooke BD, O'Hara RB, Brook BW, Fordham DA. Targeting season and age for optimizing control of invasive rabbits. Journal of Wildlife Management doi: 10.1002/jwmg.21093
    • Block S, Saltré F, Rodríguez-Rey M, Fordham D.A., Unkel I, Bradshaw CJA Where to dig for fossils: combining climate-envelope, taphonomy and discovery models. PLoS One, 11, e0151090
    • Wells K, O’Hara RB, Cooke BD, Mutze GJ, Prowse TAA, Fordham DA  Environmental effects and individual body condition drive seasonal fecundity of rabbits: identifying acute and lagged processes. Oecologia (accepted)
    • Saltré F., Rodríguez-Rey M., Brook B.W., Johnson C.N., Turney C, Alroy J, Cooper A, Beeton N, Bird M.I., Fordham D.A. et al. Climate change not to blame for late Quaternary megafauna extinctions in Australia. Nature Communications 7, 10511 doi:10.1038/ncomms10511
    • Mellin C., Mouillot D., Kulbicki M., McClanahan T.R., Vigliola L., Bradshaw C.J., Brainard R.E., Chabanet P., Edgar G.J., Fordham D.A. et al. Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied, small-ranging fishes on coral reefs. Nature Communications 7, 10491 doi:10.1038/ncomms10491
    • Jones A.R., Bull C.M., Brook BWB, Wells K, Pollock KH, Fordham DA Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard. Journal of Animal Ecology  85: 598–610. doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12469

    2015

    • Fordham D.A. Mesocosms reveal ecological surprises from climate change. Plos Biology 13(12): e1002323. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.10023
    • Lurgi M, Brook BW, Saltré F. & Fordham DA 2015 Modelling range dynamics under global change: which framework and why? Methods in Ecology and Evolution 6, 247-256
    • Brook B.W. & Fordham D.A. 2015 Hot topics in biodiversity and climate change research. F1000Research 4, 928. (doi:10.12688/f1000research.6508.1)
    • Purwandana D., Ariefiandy A., Imansyah M.J., Ciofi C., Forsyth D.M., Gormley A.M., Rudiharto H., Seno A., Fordham D.A. et al. 2015 Evaluating environmental, demographic and genetic effects on population-level survival in an island endemic. Ecography 38, 1060-1070
    • Wells K, Brook BW, Lacy RC, Mutze GJ, Peacock DE, Sinclair RG, Schwensow N, Cassey R, O'Hara RB, Fordham DA. 2015. Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 12. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2014.1184
    • Prowse TAA, Gillanders BM + 8 authors, Fordham DA  (2015) Evidence for a broad-scale decline in giant Australian cuttlefish (Sepia apama) abundance from non-targeted survey data. Marine and Freshwater Research 66, 692-700

    2014

    • Fordham DA, Brook BW, Moritz C and Nogués-Bravo D (2014) Better forecasts of range dynamics using genetic data Trends in Ecology and Evolution 29, 436–443 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2014.05.007
    • Liu J, Fordham DA, Cooke BD, Cox T, Mutze G, Strive T Distribution and prevalence of the Australian non-pathogenic rabbit calicivirus is correlated with rainfall and temperature. PLoS ONE doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12315
    • Fordham DA, Shoemaker KT, Schumaker N, Akcakaya HR, Clisby N, Brook BW (2014) How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk. Biology Letters 10, 20140198. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2014.0198
    • Gregory SD, Ancrenaz M, Brook BW, Goossens B, Alfred R, Ambu LN, and Fordham DA (2014) Forecasts of habitat suitability improve habitat corridor efficacy in rapidly changing environments. Diversity and Distribution 20, 1044–1057. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12208
    • Harris JBC, Putra DD, Gregory SD, Brook BW, Prawiradilaga DM, Sodhi NS, Wei D, and Fordham DA (2014) Rapid deforestation threatens mid-elevational endemic birds but climate change is most important at higher elevations. Diversity and Distributions 20, 773–785. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12180
    • Wadley JJ, Austin JJ, Fordham DA (2014) Genetic inference as a method for modelling occurrence: A viable alternative to visual surveys. Austral Ecology 39, 952-956
    • Harris DB, Gregory SD, Brook BW, Ritchie EG, Croft DB, Coulson G, Fordham DA (2014) The influence of non-climate predictors at local and landscape resolutions depends on the autecology of the species. Austral Ecology 39, 710-721
    • Pearson RG, Stanton JC, Shoemaker KT, Aiello-Lammens ME, Ersts PE, Horning N, Fordham DA, Raxworthy CJ, Ryu HY, McNees J and Akçakaya HR. (2014) Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change. Nature Climate Change 4, 217–221 doi:10.1038/nclimate2113
    • Mellin C, Bradshaw CJA, Fordham DA and Caley MJ (2014) Strong but opposing β-diversity-stability relationships in coral reef fish communities. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B doi: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1993 (IF = 5.683)
    • Bradshaw CJA, Brook BW, Delean S, Fordham DA, Herrando-Pérez S,  Cassey P, Early R, Sekercioglu CH, and Araújo MB. 2014. Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences 281 doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.0744
    • Kennett R, Fordham DA, Alacs E, Corey B and Georges A (2014) Chelodina oblonga Gray 1841 – Northern Snake-Necked Turtle. Chelonian Research Monographs No. 5, doi:10.3854/crm.5.077.oblonga.v1.2014
    • Shoemaker KT, Lacy RC, Verant ML, Brook BW, Livieri TM, Miller PS, Fordham DA and Akcakaya HR (2014) Effects of prey metapopulation structure on the viability of black-footed ferrets in plague-impacted landscapes: a metamodelling approach. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12223
    • Sequeira AMM, Mellin C, Fordham DA, Meekan MG and Bradshaw CJA (2014) Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks. Global Change Biology 20, 778-789 doi: 10.1111/gcb.1234
    • Purwandana D, Ariefiandy A, Imansyah MJ, Rudiharto H, Seno A, Ciofi C, Fordham DA and Jessop TS. (2014) Demographic status of Komodo Dragons Populations in Komodo National Park. Biological Conservation 171, 29–35 doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2014.01.017
    • Wadley JJ, Austin JJ, Gardner MG and Fordham DA (2014) Fifteen microsatellite loci for use in non-invasive sampling studies of antilopine wallaroo (Macropus antilopinus). Australian Journal of Zoology 61, 399-401 doi: 10.1071/ZO13074

    2013

    • Watts MJ, Fordham DA, Akçakaya HR, Aiello-Lammens ME & Brook BW Tracking range margin changes using geographical centroids of metapopulations weighted by population size and density Ecological Modelling 269, 61-69 doi 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.08.010
    • Harris JBC, Yong DL, Sodhi NS, Subaraj R, Fordham DA and Brook BW. Changes in autumn arrival of long-distance migratory birds in Southeast Asia. Climate Research 57, 133-141 doi:10.3354/cr01172
    • Fordham DA, Akçakaya HR, Brook BW, Rodríguez A, Alves PC, Civantos E, Triviño M, Watts MJ & Araújo MB 2013 Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate. Nature Climate Change 3, 899-903 doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1954
    • Fordham DA, Mellin C, Russel BD, Akçakaya HR, Bradshaw CJA., Aiello-Lammens ME, Caley MJ, Connell SD, Mayfield S, Shepherd SA and Brook BW. (2013) Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biology 10, 3224–3237 doi: 10.1111/gcb.12289
    • Fordham DA, Akçakaya HR, Araujo MB, Keith D, Brook BW. (2013)Tools for integrating range change, extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management. Ecography 36, 956–964 doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00147.x
    • Fordham DA, Brook BW1, Caley MJ, Bradshaw CJA and Mellin C. (2013) Conservation management and sustainable harvest quotas are sensitive to choice of climate modelling approach for two marine gastropods 19, 1299–1312 doi: 10.1111/ddi.12092
    • Delean S, Bull CM, Brook BW, Heard LMB and Fordham DA. (2013) Using plant distributions to predict the current and future distributional range of a rare lizard. Diversity and Distributions doi: 10.1111/ddi.12050
    • Bradshaw CJA, Bowman DMJS, Bond NR, Murphy BP, Moore AD, Fordham DA, Thackway R, Lawes MJ, McCallum H, Gregory SD, Dalal RC, Boer MM, Lynch AJ, Bradstock RA, Brook  BW, Henry BK, Hunt LP, Fisher DO, Hunter D, Johnson CN, Keith DA, Lefroy EC, Penman TD, Meyer W, Thomson JR, Thornton CM, VanDerWal J, Williams  RJ, Keniger L & Specht A (2013) Brave new green world – consequences of a carbon economy for the conservation of Australian biodiversity Biological Conservation doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2013.02.012
    • Haby NA, Prowse TAA, Gregory SD, Watts MJ, Delean S, Fordham DA, Foulkes J and Brook BW. (2013) Two scales: fine-tuning metapopulation models used to predict climate change impacts on small mammals Ecography doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07749.x 

    2012

    • Russell BR, Connell SD,Mellin C, Brook BW, Burnell OW and Fordham DA (2012) Predicting the distribution of commercially viable invertebrate stocks under future climate. PLoS ONE 7(12): e46554. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0046554
    • Fordham DA, Sinclair RG, Peacock DE, Mutze GJ, Cassey P, Kovaliski J, Capucci L and Brook BW (2012) European rabbit survival and recruitment are linked to epidemiological and environmental conditions in their exotic range. Austral Ecology, 37, 945-957 doi: 10.1111/j.1442-9993.2011.02354.
    • Gregory SD, Brook BW, Goosssens B, Ancrenaz M, Alfred R, Ambu LN and Fordham DA  (2012) Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation PLoS ONE 7(9): e43846. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043846
    • Fordham DA, Watts MJ, Delean S, Brook BW, Heard LMB and Bull CM. (2012) Managed relocation as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change threats to the persistence of an endangered lizard. Global Change Biology 18, 273-2755  doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02742.x
    • Read JL, Kovack K-J, Brook BW and Fordham DA. (2012) Booming during a bust. Asynchronous populations responses of arid zone lizards to climate variables. Acta Oecologia. 40, 51-61 doi:10.1016/j.actao.2011.09.006
    • Harris JBC, Fordham DA et al. (2012) Managing the long-term persistence of a rare cockatoo under climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology 49, 785-794 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02163.x
    • Hindell MA, Bradshaw CJA,Brook BW, Fordham DA, Kerry K, Hull C, McMahon CR (2012) Long-term breeding phenology shift in royal penguins linked to changes in climate. Ecol Evol doi:10.1002/ece3.281
    • Fordham DA, Akçakaya HR, Araújo MB et al. (2012) Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? Global Change Biology 18, 1357–1371 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02614.x
    • Harris JBC, Scheffers BR, Leighton R, Wanger TC, Sodhi NS, Fordham DA and Brook BW (2012) Conserving imperiled species: a comparison of the IUCN Red List and U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conservation Letters 5, 64-72 doi: 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2011.00205.x
    • Bradshaw CJA, McMahon CR, Miller PS, Lacy RC, Watts MJ, Verant ML, Pollack JP, Fordham DA, Prowse TA and Brook BW (2012) Novel coupling of individual-based epidemiological and demographic models predicts realistic dynamics of tuberculosis in alien buffalo. Journal of Applied Ecology 49, 268-277 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02081.x
    • Fordham DA, Wigley TML, Watts MJ, Brook BW (2012) Strengthening forecasts of climate change impacts with multi-model ensemble averaged projections using MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3. Ecography 35, 4-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07398.x
    • Mellin C, Russell BR, Connell SD, Brook BW & Fordham DA (2012) Geographic range determinants of two commercially important marine molluscs. Diversity and Distributions 18, 133-146 doi: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00822.x

    2011

    • Fordham DA, Wigley TML and Brook BW (2011) Multi-model climate projections for biodiversity risk assessments. Ecological Applications. 21, 3317–3331.
    • Watts MJ, Li Y, Russel BD, Mellin C, Connell SD, and Fordham DA (2011) A novel method for mapping reefs and subtidal rocky habitats using artificial neural networks. Ecological Modelling. 222, 2606-2614 
    • Harris JBC, Sekercioglu CH, Sodhi NS, Fordham DA, Paton DC, and Brook BW (2011) The tropical frontier in avian climate impact research. Ibis. 153, 877-882

    2009-2010

    • Firth RS, Brook BW, Woinarski JCZ and Fordham DA. (2010) Decline and likely extinction of a northern Australian native rodent, the brush-tailed rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus. Biological Conservation. 143, 1193-1201
    • Fordham DA & Brook BW (2010) Why tropical island endemics are acutely susceptible to global change. Biodiversity and Conservation. 19, 329-342
    • Fordham DA, Georges A, Brook BW (2009) Experimental evidence for density dependent responses to mortality of snake-necked turtles. Oecologia. 159, 271-278
    • Anderson, B.J., Akçakaya, H.R., Araujo, M.B., Fordham, D.A., Martinez-Meyer, E., Thuiller, W. & Brook, B.W. (2009) Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, 276, 1415-1420

    2006-2008

    • Fordham DA, Georges A, Brook BW (2008) Indigenous harvest, exotic pig predation and local persistence of a long-lived vertebrate: managing a tropical freshwater turtle for sustainability and conservation. Journal of Applied Ecology 45, 52-62.
    • Fordham DA, Georges A, Brook BW (2007) Demographic response of snake-necked turtles correlates with indigenous harvest and feral pig predation in tropical northern Australia. Journal of Animal Ecology 76, 1231-1243.
    • Fordham DA, Georges A, Corey B (2007) Optimal conditions for egg storage,incubation and post-hatching growth for the freshwater turtle, Chelodina rugosa: Science in support of an indigenous enterprise. Aquaculture 270, 105-114.
    • Fordham DA, Georges A, Corey B (2006) Compensation for inundation-induced embryonic diapause in a freshwater turtle: Achieving predictability in the face of environmental stochasticity. Functional Ecology 20, 670-677.
    • Fordham DA, Georges A, Corey B, Brook BW (2006) Feral pig predation threatens the indigenous harvest and local persistence of snake-necked turtles in northern Australia. Biological Conservation 133, 379-388.

    Book Chapters

    • Fordham DA, Akçakaya HR, Araujo M and Brook BW (2011) Modelling range shifts for invasive vertebrates in response to climate change. In Wildlife Conservation in a Changing Climate. Eds. Brodie J, Post E, Doak D, University of Chicago Press. In press
    • Fordham DA and Brook BW (2010) Why tropical island endemics are acutely susceptible to global change. Tropical Islands Biodiversity Crisis: The Indo-west Pacific. Eds.  Lane DJW Springer Verlag pp 17-30

    Other

    • Fordham A, Fogerty B, Corey B and Fordham D. (2010) Knowledge foundations for the development of sustainable wildlife enterprises in remote indigenous communities of Australia. Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research Report.
    • Fordham A, Fogerty B, and Fordham D. (2010) The viability of wildlife enterprises in remote Indigenous communities of Australia: A case study. Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research Report. 

    • Fordham DA (2007) Population regulation in snake-necked turtles in northern tropical Australia: modelling turtle population dynamics in support of Aboriginal harvests PhD. University of Canberra, Canberra
    • Fordham D, Hall R, Georges A (2004) Aboriginal harvest of long-necked turtles in Arnhem Land, Australia. Turtle and Tortoise Newsletter, 7, 20-21

     

  • Professional Associations

    University affiliations:

    • Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
    • Center for Global Mountain Biodiversity, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.

    Editorial Boards:

    • Handling Editor:Ecography
    • Editorial Board Member: Biology Letters 

    Societies:

    • International Society for Biogeography http://www.biogeography.org/
    • IUCN Climate Change Specialist Group: https://iucn-ccsg.org/

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Entry last updated: Thursday, 12 Jan 2023

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