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In the current climate it is difficult to predict demand within and across the higher education sector with absolute certainty.

However, looking at pre-pandemic market trends in combination with general behaviours associated with times of recession, deductions can be made about future demand and inclination for higher education products. Prior to the pandemic, research demonstrated a strong appetite for further formal learning, under the provision of acknowledgment of recognised prior learning, and affordable and flexible learning resulting in career advantage.

One of the main cited barriers to engagement in further formal learning is a lack of time, lack of on the job training opportunities and affordability. The drastic changes to education and employment will have a significant impact on the demand for further formal learning – through the provision of free capacity/time (resulting from social distancing and isolation measures), the need to reskill and upskill due to rapid changes in job demand and availability, and the opportunity to stay connected with others through engagement with learning. The timeline of such demand seems less clear, with varying reports of a weakening demand over the immediate year (2020) due to the uncertainty of the impact of COVID-19, but a resurgence in demand over and above average uptake in 2021.

Clear impacts to particular labour markets, as well as to those working from home, could provide opportunities to offer products that expedite reskilling or upskilling to increase employability in the immediate future (short term) or in preparation for the future (medium-long term). Restoring the demand-driven university funding system and population data that will see more school leavers at the end of 2020 may also impact the demand for higher education in the longer term.

The growing appetite for further formal learning highlighted by the 2019 Deloitte survey “Where to now? Beyond the skills gap” sought Australian attitudes of post-bachelor workers nationally toward formal learning and the factors influencing their choice of course and provider. The report outlined the mutual understanding of post-bachelor workers and employers, about the current and projected skills gap as a result of rapid technological advancement and longer life expectancy – which will see workers upskill and reskill multiple times as they move through their employment trajectory. Post-bachelor learners have expressed a strong appetite for further formal learning, which rests on recognition of their prior skills, affordable and flexible learning resulting in career advantage.

Critical to this is the need to enhance and communicate the value of formal learning to post-bachelor workers, and to the broader workforce, to encourage workers to seek opportunities to undertake further formal learning. Identified barriers to further formal learning were a lack of on the job training opportunities, a lack of time, and affordability. The survey also found that if certain conditions could be met by providers, those who identified as ‘not interested’ in undertaking further formal learning, would be encouraged to. This rested on the premise that their work experience or prior learning could be recognised as advanced credit, in turn reducing course length and fees.

The research emphasised that while an undergraduate degree qualification may be a solid foundation for initial employment, it is unlikely to sustain us throughout the course of our longer lives. Employers are now more interested in skills rather than qualifications. Each job will require a combination of manual, cognitive, and human skills – with employers placing emphasis on human skills (interpersonal and creative capabilities such as customer service, innovative thinking and conflict resolution). These skills were found to be in critical shortage now and in the future, across all industries, but pronounced in government, construction, health, professional services, and education. Investing in our workforce and building the skills needed for future work could gain Australia a $36billion annual increase to national income by 2030. Deloitte made the following recommendations to providers to future protect the workforce:

1. Credit – recognise prior learning and experience to support fast track to completion. Develop robust, quality-assured mechanisms to assess and credit competencies developed through prior experience.
2. Pace – enable flexibility for self-paced learning to work around life commitments. Deliver learning at convenient places, including within the workplace, supported by employer and provide partnerships that retain and upskill talent at scale.
3. Stack – provide micro-courses and post-grad qualifications or short courses that stack towards qualifications. Provide credit/recognition that post-grad workers that can be ‘banked’ until required or enable them to intermit if/when required.
4. Value – show the value and advantage of formal learning in a changing world. Educate workers on the labour market, employer needs for specific skills, and the value of return on investment for further formal learning. Promote the quality, standards and industry creditability of further formal learning that leads to career advantage.

The impact of the coronavirus has had an immediate impact on a set of industries, with actual data on the labour force due to be released in mid-April through the Australian Bureau of Statistics. About 2.7 million workers were employed in the most exposed industries in February 2020, with hospitality and tourism accounting for 1.4 million of these and a further 900, 000 represented in non-food retail and personal services.  are predominantly young (35 years or under), six out of seven in the group are employees and are evenly distributed across full time and part time employment.

Nationally, the following shows the number of hospitality and tourism jobs potentially impacted by Government closures, by industry sub-sector / population:

In addition, the following figures related to those in industries which are highly impacted due to cuts in discretionary spending:

Conversely, the pandemic has resulted in rapid demand in other industries – such as the retail grocery trade, transport and logistics, office essentials required for working at home, IT, healthcare and finance.  suggest that software services and IT has had a hiring increase of 17.3 per cent, healthcare a 12.6 percent rise and finance a 10.3 per cent increase. This is further supported by a newly formed website by the Government’s - Department of Education, Skills and Employment which has compiled a database of employers with multiple job opportunities nationally, and by each state /territory. In addition, the University of Melbourne’s Professor of Economics, Jeff Borland,  in the supply of workers – as workers withdraw to look after children, and, further disruptions due to the impact of illness generated from COVID-19 resulting in more people taking leave (for illness or to care for family members). Boland further prefaces that while it is difficult to predict the magnitude of withdrawal from the labour force (and therefore supply of workers) it will be ‘large’, based on the figure of 1.21 million families (in 2019) with children aged 0-9 years in which either a sole parent or both parents were engaged in paid work, and on estimates of withdrawal due to infection/illness equating to approximately 67, 500 people out of work for some time. Automotive repair and maintenance (146, 400), heavy civil engineering construction (107, 200), non-residential building construction (60, 400) and preschool education (51, 100) have been flagged as ‘at risk’ in the future. To this end, a result of being ‘stood down’ or newly unemployed may provide the impetus to seek engagement in further formal learning, to make use of time at home or to ensure one’s competitiveness in the job market for any opportunities that present in the immediate – medium term. Some predictions have been made in regards to temporary policies to prioritise funding programs that retrain people for high-demand work or emerging roles.

As people undertake social distancing measures and are required to stay at home, previous barriers to engagement in further formal education may be reduced enabling engagement with online learning (professional development). Deloitte’s research revealed knowledge of the need to reskill and upskill to remain relevant and competitive for the future workforce, the pandemic providing an opportunity to research and/or engage in education. Uptake of products may be impacted by individual circumstances (affordability and flexibility), however a renewed motivation for developing a transferrable or universal skillset remains static. In-demand skills have been listed as: UX design; cloud computing; machine learning/AI; digital marketing; Adobe Suite; and video production. Further, ‘Xero’, MYOB, project management; IT and business analysts are considered some of the most valuable skills in recruitment. Availability of  are predicted to be more appealing to people, given the uncertainty of the length of the recession, coupled with the expense that often accompanies longer programs. The Australian Government recognises the pivotal role of  in the nation’s economy and has announced funding and incentives for businesses for training and support ($1 million) and grants ($500 000) to support businesses develop e-commerce and online services.

In light of the social distancing measures and gradual shut-down of some institutions, use of online education and technology (‘edutech’) has rapidly increased. Pearson has reported an ‘explosion’ in demand for online learning, with traffic across platforms quadrupling as coronavirus spread, leading to mobilisation of resources to train more teachers to deliver lessons online and provide digital content/resources. Globally they report a 400% increase in activity, which has been mirrored in other online education products such as ‘The Maths Factor’ gaining 41, 000 new subscribers in one day, and the Connections Academy online school (USA) adding 2000 additional places after receiving 70, 000 applications. The rapid switch to digital learning is likely to see demand for ‘digital teaching toolkits’, and short form learning modules or programs providing skills and expertise in the creation of engaging digital learning content. Additionally, Pearson also predicts that the will be a defining shift that continues beyond the life of the pandemic, a shift mirrored in Australia and across Asia, with reports of a post-virus “boom” in  due to its legitimisation and maturation into mainstream education. The result in the  has led to a shortage of suitably qualified world-class tutors globally, with the recognition that online learning needs to be interactive and have as much face-to-face learning as possible (as opposed to MOOCS which may be affordable but do not provide guidance and have limited capacity for interaction).

Flexible admissions, decreased options, and a return to demand-driven funding may also impact uptake of further formal learning. In previous recession applications for university places significantly increased. With the continued impact of COVID-19, and therefore restrictions on travel and decreased job opportunities, applications and acceptance for university placements are likely to increase (and deferrals decrease). The lack of alternate options (for example to defer and travel) may also result in the uptake of shorter form courses of post-school leavers before they commit to a longer term degree option or to engage in ‘taster’ or introduction courses. It may also provide an opportunity for increased fluidity between vocational education institutions and universities – through collaborating to deliver theoretical learning content via university’s online learning platforms while practical, onsite learning opportunities are ‘paused’ amid workplace closures and social distancing measures, enabling vocational education and training (VET) students to progress in the immediate future (with on the job training to follow when restrictions are lifted). Additionally, reports of a return to restore the demand-driven university funding system and r would be strategic in decreasing the demand on welfare and increasing engagement with skilling or reskilling during a time of rapid change – a productive use of ‘free capacity’.

By Michelle Campbell, Research Officer, Education Transformation at ���˴�Ƭ.