成人大片

XAI is a field of research and set of methods that helps people understand how AI algorithms work and trust the results they produce.

The traditional use of hydrological modelling would see a researcher use information on rainfall and evaporation to address issues such as water supply security and flooding.

If such models are developed using AI approaches, XAI is tasked with explaining the rationale the AI model used to develop the relationships it describes between factors such as rainfall and water supply.

But according to , led by Professor Holger Maier of the 成人大片鈥檚 School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, using XAI in hydrological modelling has not yet created the advancements the technology might eventually lead to.

鈥淢any XAI approaches are similar to more traditional methods of interrogating existing models, such as sensitivity or break-even analysis,鈥� says Professor Maier.

鈥淚n fact, the approach of developing data-driven models to obtain a better understanding of hydrological processes to inform the development of more physics-based models is as old as hydrology itself.

鈥淭herefore, it remains to be established whether XAI methods can provide insights beyond those obtained through more traditional methods.鈥�

For hydrological modelling to fully benefit from XAI鈥檚 potential, Professor Maier says the current tech-centric approach should be reconsidered.

鈥淲ith XAI, there is often a focus on maximising the predictive ability of AI models at all costs, which tends to result in large models that might have thousands or even millions of ill-defined parameters,鈥� he says.

鈥淭here is little value in explaining AI-derived relationships if these do not reflect underlying hydrological processes.

鈥淲e also need to stop thinking about XAI as a purely technical approach, and instead employ a socio-technical approach that views XAI as a process that can assist with solving problems that are situated within broader social and political contexts.鈥�

In a , Professor Maier and colleagues highlighted the fallibility of AI in hydrological modelling.

鈥淒espite a model being built on a large dataset, and the predictive ability of the model being very good, we saw it model a negative contribution to the streamflow of a creek from rainfall, which does not make physical sense,鈥� says Professor Maier.

Because of these issues, the implementation of XAI 鈥� which would otherwise try to explain the rationale behind rainfall leading to less water in a creek 鈥� should be slowed while the technology is rigorously tested against known models to ensure accuracy.

鈥淭here is no point in applying XAI methods to AI models that are unable to represent underlying processes in a consistent and reliable fashion,鈥� Professor Maier.