Globally, floods seem to be decreasing even as extreme rainfall rises. Why?
Environment Institute member Associate Professor Seth Westra and PhD candidate Hong Xuan Do听have published an article in The Conversation today on his work with rainfall and flood risk estimation, hydrological modelling, water resources planning and management.
His article explains the really interesting results from his recent paper that suggest major floods and the impacts from these are decreasing despite increases in rainfall.
They suggest that despite lower streamflow events may partially contribute, as "catchments in many parts of the world are getting drier on average, which might mean that extreme rainfall events, when they do arrive, are less likely to trigger floods"
However, they go on to suggest more work needs to be done to confirm this hypothesis and a one-size-fits all will not work for flood modelling as there are many complex factors in play. They suggest, "Only by taking a holistic view, informed by the best available science, can we truly minimise risk and maximise our resilience to future floods."
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Read the full article on
His article explains the really interesting results from his recent paper that suggest major floods and the impacts from these are decreasing despite increases in rainfall.
They suggest that despite lower streamflow events may partially contribute, as "catchments in many parts of the world are getting drier on average, which might mean that extreme rainfall events, when they do arrive, are less likely to trigger floods"
However, they go on to suggest more work needs to be done to confirm this hypothesis and a one-size-fits all will not work for flood modelling as there are many complex factors in play. They suggest, "Only by taking a holistic view, informed by the best available science, can we truly minimise risk and maximise our resilience to future floods."
听
Read the full article on
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