Predicting publishing success in scientists.

[caption id="attachment_5514" align="alignleft" width="500"]Men with printing press circa 1930s Image - Flickr/ Seattle Municipal Archives. Men with printing press circa 1930s
Image - Flickr/ Seattle Municipal Archives.[/caption]

A provocative new study suggests it is straightforward to predict which academics will succeed as publishing scientists.

Those who publish earlier and more often while young are typically the long-term winners.

鈥淲e were really surprised,鈥 said Professor William Laurance of James Cook University in Cairns, Australia, who led the study.

鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 matter if you go to Harvard or a low-ranked university. If you begin publishing scientific articles when you鈥檙e still a graduate student, you are far more likely to succeed in the long run.鈥

Laurance鈥檚 team scrutinized more than 1400 biologists on four continents, and then selected 182 to study intensively.

They found the researchers varied greatly - by almost a hundred-fold - in the number of scientific articles they published during their careers.

鈥淔or reasons that are not totally clear, some people just 鈥榞et鈥 the publishing game early in their careers, and it鈥檚 these scientists who are most likely to keep on publishing strong research,鈥 said Professor Corey Bradshaw of the 成人大片鈥檚 Environment Institute in South Australia.

Another finding was that women faced some disadvantages in publishing research, even those who overcame the well-documented attrition of senior female academics.

鈥淲omen have to jump a lot of hurdles in science,鈥 said Carolina Useche of the Humboldt Institute in Colombia. 鈥淔amily responsibilities weigh heavily on them, and they don鈥檛 seem to promote themselves as aggressively as some men do.鈥

Language also plays a role, according to Ms Useche. 鈥淭hose who grow up speaking and writing English have an advantage, because most scientific journals are in English,鈥 she said.

The research team reached two key conclusions.

First, far too few women make it to the top in science, in large part because they do not, on average, publish as often as men.

鈥淔or women scientists, it鈥檚 just not a level playing field, and we need to find ways to help them advance professionally,鈥 Professor Bradshaw said.

Second, those who publish early and often are most likely to become scientific superstars, regardless of the international standing of the universities where they obtained their PhD.

鈥淲e need to pay a lot of attention to the early training of scientists,鈥 Professor Laurance said. 鈥淚f we do a good job, we can give them a head start that will last their whole lives. This research gives us a good evidence base for our efforts."



Predicting publication success for biologists by William F. Laurance, D. Carolina Useche, Susan G. Laurance, and Corey J. A. Bradshaw was just published online in BioScience:

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